There are 3 major pieces required for a successful biotech. #1 Does the drug work and is it safe? #2 Does the company have the financial means to get the drug through FDA trials with a reasonable amount of dilution compared to future revenues? #3 Does the company have a management team capable of successfully managing #1 & #2. (I drafted this message before the 10Q came out but in a quick read through I did not see anything in the 10Q that alters my position).
The concern that the shorts will continue to control the stock until IPIX drugs produce revenue royalties is a false narrative that the shorts will be using to try to keep the share price down once a partnership is announced. The shorts have had an easy prey with IPIX up to this point with the only form of revenue being the issuing of stock on the supply side and being under the radar with little coverage on the demand side. The limited number of true longs that have discovered IPIX have been no match for the nefarious entity that has been using paid bashers, phony law suits, dishonest MM’s and trading gangs to artificially and successfully depress IPIX share price.
I look at the Brilacidin “franchise” (multiple indications producing multiple revenue streams) as a multi stage rocket as far as IPIX share price is concerned.
Stage 1 is the partnership. As others have stated a $50M + upfront payment on a royalty deal would take away the biggest fear in investing in IPIX which is liquidity. At a $12M/year or so burn rate $50M would represent 4 years + of cash without the need to sell any additional shares. In parallel with a partnership there will be a PR announcing the initiation of phase 3 trials. The Big Pharma partner and the FDA both validate #1 that the drug works and has value. The partnership deal takes away any concern regarding #2 regarding liquidity and dilution. It also silences the critics of #3 who have been constantly bashing IPIX management especially Leo.A partnership proves that IPIX management has positioned a game changing drug into Phase 3 with minimal dilution considering the value of the asset and the future revenue streams it will produce. The shorts know that this Stage 1 is inevitable and that their job will become much more difficult as the stock gaps higher. (see my post #52849 example below) With liquidity no longer being their main FUD weapon they will attempt to scare weak hands into selling by planting doubts of a successful phase 3. They will prey on longs, many of whom are worn down from watching IPIX share price decline from the high $4.93/share down to pennies and they will plant doubt that a hiccup in phase 3 will plummet the stock back down from the $2-$4/share range back down to near zero. Better sell while you can! Take your profit and run away! This is the phase where the shorts are no longer holding the winning hand. They will do and say whatever they can to pry shares loose.
Stage 2 is the completion of Phase 3 and market readiness. Now the fun begins. Stage 1 above will bring in many new investors as the Biotech, Pharmaceutical and Wall Street audience will get turned on to IPIX. Stage 2 will bring in a whole new level of investment as Brilacidin hits the market with a big name Pharma running ads on your favorite nightly news program. Whatever the stock price is at this time will take another major leap upwards. My WAG is $10/share. Any shorts remaining will be crushed which is why they have to make their stand now and through Stage 1. SS, loanranger, tonto and all of the other paid bashers will finally disappear as they are outnumbered on the supply/demand equation.
Stage 3 is where Brilacidin multiple revenue streams flow. Multiple indications dealing with multiple diseases across MULTI-BILLION dollar markets. Any investor with 6th grade math skills and a calculator will be able to figure out that IPIX is no longer a bet on the future. I have no idea what the share price will be at this point in time but for discussion sake I will WAG $20-$40/share. My WAG is based on $8B to $10B in annual revenue X 15% royalty= $1.2B to $1.5B in Annual revenue with 250M shares outstanding (179M OS + 70M options). Most longs will want to have a meaningful IPIX position at this point where IPIX share price is no longer artificially priced and Brilacidin finally becomes monetized.
Btw I have not mentioned Kevetrin which is why I personally own IPIX stock. If Kevetrin is successful you can easily ADD A ZERO to any of my share price WAGs from above which are based solely on the Brilacidin franchise.
Post # 52849
Posted On: 01/24/2019 3:46:34 PM
Posted By: Mo
It currently is very cheap for an entity to keep IPIX share price down based on the current 11 cent or so share price. Take an example where a manipulator has a $27,500 daily bank-roll to buy up to 250,000 shares. For this example let’s say they are willing to take a half a cent loss on their transactions to keep the stock artificially low. A half cent loss currently represents 5% of the total share price and on 250,000 shares is only $1,250. That $1,250 daily loss is probably less expensive than what they are paying their paid bashers on a daily basis. The only reason they have to take this minor loss is that there are still some pesky longs that keep nibbling away at these depressed values. Both the paid bashers and the daily transaction hits are simply the price of poker to them.
Now let’s use the same example and we wake up some morning soon and the share price has spiked up to $3.00/share after a partnership announcement. There is an abundance of NEW buyers beyond the pesky longs that have been holding on for dear life. These new buyers drive REAL volume up to levels that we have previously never seen on IPIX as the entire biotech, pharmaceutical and Wall Street industries take notice and buy their tickets for a piece of a rising biotech star.
Back to our manipulator. That same $27,500 bank-roll would now only buy 9,166 shares vs the 250,000 shares currently. 9,166 shares will be a rounding error if legit volume raises to 500,000 to 1M shares daily. To control that same 5% of overall share price at $3 as the example above the manipulator would now have to take a daily hit of 15 cents vs a half a cent per share. A 15 cent loss on the same 250,000 shares would now be $37,500 loss per day vs only $1,250 currently. The cost of poker has just significantly gone up for the manipulator. The manipulator knows that $3/share is just the start as many of the new investors are just as pesky as the current longs and are looking for $10-$20/share exit strategies as Brilacidin and Kevetrin advance to market.
At some point the law of supply and demand wins. It always does.